The signifcance of the event became immediately apparent: For perhaps the first time in history, a massive march of people against war was on the loose in the nation's capitol, controlling the streets and showing no signs of stopping. A sea of people stretching more than one mile long and taking up four lanes of roadway marched through the nation's capitol Saturday in vocal and colorful opposition to the U.S. government's drive to war with Iraq.
Tens of thousands of people of diverse ages
and ethnic backgrounds braved frigid weather to peacefully rally in front of
Congress and march in the streets of Washignton, DC, to oppose war and to demand
peace and justice. In the game of estimating crowd size, police said about
30,000 people participated while organizers put the number at 500,000. Many
independent observers estimated about 200,000 people participated, which made it
twice as large as the last anti-war rally in DC in October. More
per il w.p. oltre 125.000 la verità è che in usa non sono abituati a questi numeri e stanno perdendo la testa!comunque le più grandi manifestazioni da decenni.Estimate of 265,000 and the methodology.
Counting the number of protestors at Saturday's rallies and march in DC has
become controversial mostly because it is usually sheer guesswork. There were
more people there than I've seen at any event since the Million Man March (which
was bigger). But how many?
I think a simple formula can be used to
estimate numbers in a march. The idea is to estimate crowd size by estimated
area covered and then estimating the number of people who could occupy that
space.
X=length of march in feet
Y=width of march in feet
Z=square
footage of march area
P=square footage consumed by 1 marcher
N=number of
people in the march
the formulas
X*Y=Z
Z/P=N
Here are some
numbers to consider in the calculations. These estimates and the variables I
decided on give a number more than 265,000 strong as an estimate. I don't have
an estimate for numbers at the rallies. How did I estimate this?
The
parade route was 2.2 miles long according to the Maps On Us website. I was at
the front of the march and by the time I finished and walked back to the Mall
people were still leaving the Mall. So the march length was at least 2.2 miles
long--maybe longer. There are 5,280 feet in a mile--11,616 feet in 2.2 miles.
X=11,616
One lane of a road is 12 feet wide. A four lane road...like most
of the parade route...is at least 48 feet wide. Plus probably another 10 feet
for the sidewalks and parts of the median we covered. Y=58
According to
the old method used by the government, the Park Service estimates one person
takes up 3 square feet of space. (this means a person stands in a space that is
21 inches by 21 inches). That sounds reasonable to me making P=3
11,616*58 = 673,728(minimum square footage for the march)
673,728/3 =
224,576 (<<==low estimate for number of people in the march)
I also
feel it is reasonable that the march itself was longer than the route since by
the time I walked from the front of the march all the way back to the Mall the
end was just leaving the Mall. So, adding some length to the march would
increase the number. If I add 0.4 miles the estimate increases to more than
265,000. (<<==FINAL estimate)
So, my final estimate is that more
than 265,000 people marched...tens of thousands more also rallied. Playing with
these variables can give you your own estimate.